Intuitive Intelligence (I2) v Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence is a too-often mischaracterized nomenclature used by many business development and marketing organizations in claims their company is operating in that space. Most AI-claimed products actually provide historical reports of activities that already occurred, rather than real analysis of the environment to predict future business and mission impacts, and their AI analysis is too often just the same report with more sources.

A number of leading edge analytic tools are capable of doing much more than report generation by looking at outlier data points to discern changes or previously unknown information that could affect business decisions. Their secret sauce is in providing intelligent systems driven by thousands and millions of small insignificant pieces of information on their own that put together create a broader, deeper picture from which better decisions can be made.

As technology experts talk today about future intelligent decision systems, they use the term Artificial Intelligence (AI). I prefer the term Intuitive Intelligence (or I2). This implies that intuition must be a part of that intelligent system. There is some science that indicates men and women often arrive at decisions differently. Men are inclined to stick with the facts and make a decision based on what the black and white data tells them. Women are often able to incorporate intuitive (gray area) feelings in the decision process versus a data-driven only perspective. Intuition is an ability to understand something based on a feeling, but in reality that feeling is driven by a multitude of many, many (many) small pieces of often insignificant information that are assimilated in a way to make a better risk assessment. Continue reading

Posted in AI, Algorithm, Analytics as a Service, Artificial Intelligence, Deep Analytics, I2, Information Sharing, Insights, Intuitive Intelligence, Relationships, Risk, Risk Assessment, Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

What the General Meant to Say….. and other stuff that no one every told you about

What the General Meant to Say…. and other stuff they never told you about

At some point, almost everyone says, “Wow, if I knew then what I know now, things might have been very different.”

Throughout life a number of mentors shared insights that shaped who I am today. Sometimes the lessons were taught up front, but I didn’t capture their essence until much later. Generally, lessons learned were after the fact.

Occasionally, the truth is so obvious it goes without saying — but needs to be stated anyway.  Often the truth is Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Strategic Planning Primer

Strategic Planning 101 – Synopsis

strategic-planning-cover

As an entrepreneur you had to prepare a business plan for your start-up before anyone would consider funding your great idea. Unfortunately, many companies —  start-up and established alike — then put their plan on the shelf, rarely if ever to revisit it again.  Life happens, things change, businesses grow, and there is a good reason to periodically reexamine your strategic plan.

strategic-planning-101_wbi

In this seminar you will learn the essentials of the Strategic Planning Process — who’s involved, their tasks, and what they bring to the table. You’ll understand why a vision and mission statement are critical and how to build goals and objectives that link to the actions you need to improve your business.   You’ll learn why specific tasks ultimately link to your corporate vision and how to create useful measures that contribute to your mission success.  Finally, you’ll better understand the resources that are needed to deliver value and not just another book on a shelf.

Posted in Leadership, Mission/Business Improvement, Objectives/Tasks, Strategy, Vision | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

We Need to Change the Way We Think About Artificial Intelligence

artificial-intelligenceWe need to change the way we think about artificial intelligence. It is actually neither artificial nor intelligent in the way we normally consider these concepts. AI implies decisions made through computers programmed to make choices to act in a certain manner. But those computers are programmed simply to make yes/no decision — in an electronic circuit, it’s either yes or no, the circuit is on or its off. The major dynamic a work, though, is that the number of yes/no decisions is based upon a significantly larger set of information variables that have been programmed to be of some importance in the ultimate outcome.

This is really no different than what we consider intuition. Intuition is really the subconscious understanding of a large number of variables that we’ve internally recognized over time and play into a reaction to a given situation. The mother’s intuition that “that guy is probably not a good person for my daughter to date” is based on years of experience and judgments, relationships and observations, small cues and whispered observations that combine to help distinguish more than seems obvious on the surface. We marvel at some sports stars athletic ability, but miss the point they’ve learned how to see the big picture, where the ball is travelling, how the opponents are moving, understanding how to plant a foot, shift their weight, exert the specific muscle strength required to push up in the air, stretch an arm and fingertip to put their hand in a position to grab a ball that no normal human should be able to catch.

We input stock information and world situations, environmental histories and economic lessons into data points and feed millions and billions of bits of data into “artificial” and “intelligent” systems that can see patterns and decipher outlier analyses that lead to positive business returns better than normal human intuition could ever consider. Some consider this cheating the system. Perhaps so, perhaps not so much as just understanding better what drives the decisions in the first place and gathering all those mini-decision points together to get a billion yes/no answers faster than your brain could ever imagine and process them.

Does AI get it right all the time? No. Why? Because there was some factor that had not previously been considered that affects the outcome. So the next time, that factor is rolled into the equations and the next decision is a little more finely tuned. Will that decision always be right? No. Why? Because there is yet another decision that hadn’t been in the equation. So we roll that into the intelligent decision process. But is that really any different than non-artificial, organic intelligence (read: your brain)? Not really, because that’s what mom does when she knows you shouldn’t get too serious about that guy because he’s really a jerk even though he seems like the best catch in town.

After all, what is intelligence anyway. It is conceptualizing and describing relationships in ways that previously were not understood or explained. Did Einstein invent relativity? No, but he described it in a way previously not considered and it opened the door to further discovery and exploration. Did Newton invent gravity? I don’t think so, but he conceptualized and explained it in a manner that helped others move forward. Did Kepler create planetary movement? No, but he described it in ways that still explain the way we explore the universe. And inventors extrapolate what we know with other pieces of what we know to create entirely new ways to put objects and pieces of puzzles together today that allow us to improve human life and the way we do things everyday. Their observation and analysis of outlier activities are pulled into the mainstream of how and what we do every day, allowing us to reinvent the process of our processes . Is it intelligent? Sure. Is it different than using artificial, inorganic computational analysis to look for trends or outliers that open the door to new ways of doing business, change the way we consider the world, or help us make better decisions? Not so much.

So what does this all have to do with the federal acquisition process , the “tyranny of one size fits all”, and reinventing government? Every situation is different. Every situation is the same. In the end, you have to make a decision. Should the rules be set in stone. Yes. Should you be given the judgment and discretion to use your head. Yes. Should we be agile in the approach to developing new models. Yes. Should we understand and incorporate mandatory specifications that are unique to the situation? Absolutely, yes. Should we watch for bad behavior on the front end or reward good results on the backside. Yes. Should we develop “non-organic” intelligence to frame decisions? Yes Is there ever enough data to make the perfect decision? No. Do we start with the rules and guidelines that direct and discretion to bend them when necessary? Yes Do we continue to refine the process and the rules and the guidelines and gather more data and more intuition points and trust that the decisions will get better? Yes. Will we still make bad decisions? Yes Do we ever stop refining the computational processes?

AI is not artificial and it’s not intelligent. It is an extension of your mother’s intuition. Why? I don’t know. Think about it. Have some chicken soup and tell me about your day.

Posted in Acquisition, Analytics as a Service, Big Data, Enterprise Analytics, Information Sharing, Mission/Business Improvement, Policy, Strategy, Technology, Uncategorized, Vision | Leave a comment

Statesmanship, Intimidation, & Respecting Personal Value

Our political experience has become an instance akin to everyone in the schoolyard following the bully because that’s who can make things Schoolyard Discussionhappen, whether they’re the right things or not.  Usually he/she is interested in only what benefits themself, but occasionally will take on a larger cause (because of the personal gains in the end).  It is all about the power and the winning.  It is never about taking anyone else’s considerations into account.  It is rarely about trying to understand what others are talking about or where they’re coming from.  It is seldom about assimilating the best of all, leveraging all ideas, people, and cultures.  It is very much a me-centric perspective.  Everyone wants to jump on the bully bandwagon because they want to feel like winners.

As mature adults reflecting back on the kids in the school yard, who wants their kids to grow up like the bully who pushed their way into every victory, stepping on those around who got in the way, taking credit for everything from the sun coming up to the moon at night, and promising the stars because that’s what the playground wants to hear? More often you want your children to be founded in seeing what’s good, right, and honest in the people around them.  You want them to lead by example of strength, integrity, and following through with doing what they say they’ll do.  You want them to lead by pulling the best from everyone around them.

We, collectively, have lost our way regarding everyday statesmanship. No one gets everything they want.  We have to learn to get along and find the best in what everyone offers in order to grow stronger as a collective community.  It is not about what is black, brown, yellow, or white.  It is not about rich, richer, poor, and middle.  It is not about religion, ethnicity, background, or education.  We have lost our respect for the dignity of those around us and find it too easy to spout causal pabulum that is too much based on one single perspective to the detriment of all else.

America is great because we’ve melded ideas from everyone who comes. We listened to others because we knew that in order for our own voice to be heard, we had to respect another’s.  It did not mean we had (or have) to agree, but we need to find common fertile ground to grow as a nation.  The men and women chosen to represent us take our interests with them, respecting those interests while listening to others.  We can agree to disagree, but must still learn to find ways to move forward, raise the bar, improve the result.

We were not always right in the outcomes and were not always inclusive as needed. That can, will, and must change.  But the dialogue must continue, with both respect and candor.  We must not fall to namecalling and intimidating and shouting toward violent conclusions.  If one is a loser, we all are losers.  If one is a bigoted and mean-spirited braggart, listen to the source of that schism, but don’t put him in a position to drive that same agenda for all.  That is not who we are, that is not where we want to go, that is not what we want to become.  We are a great people because we value everyone, we place worth in everyone’s position, we share in their victories and defeats.  We are the collective of many, many, many great ideas.  Those who lead us must understand that above all else we will live or die as one.

Posted in Leadership, Policy, Politics, Statesmanship, Strategy, Uncategorized, Vision | Leave a comment

A New Year’s Resolution

125px-Jefferson_Memorial_with_Declaration_preambleWe too often react to what is happening around the world, rather than asking why. Our foreign policy has become a responder to the most current threat(s), and we seem lost to consider or act with a thought out strategy for what is important for our continued existence 100 years hence or to even attempt to understand why nation states act in irrational or extraordinary fashion. Additionally, we telegraph our every move through a constant need to show that we can scurry faster than the latest social media. This is not world leadership and certainly not that of a state committed to the ultimate betterment of mankind.

There are long and distant reasons for the longstanding troubles in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. To believe we can stand guard as a playground monitor and keep the peace when they’ve all trying to re-stake the claim to the same homeland will not end well. Our (read: the western world’s) investment basis in that region has changed significantly over the past 150 years and perhaps, too, should the way we involve ourselves in its future.

The island building in the South China Sea is indicative of the same nation-state issues as those that drove Japanese territorial expansion in the mid-20th century, but by a newer major player on the world stage. The threat to free movement on the seas is understandably unnerving to every other state which values their own existence. But we seldom look at why that player feels obliged to put a stake in the sea/sand, why it is more than saber-rattling, and how we must work toward a regional stability that will pass the challenges of the next millennium.

Too many of our political leaders believe that Defense should lead our foreign policy. It should always be a last resort, but we/they are too willing to insert our military without asking first what is the desired outcome — and it is never winning via body count, bombs dropped, buildings destroyed, or missions flown.

The brotherhood of arms is a strong fellowship of those who share a kindred understanding of what it means to be willing to go the final mile. I must tell you that no commander wants to commit troops without knowing why they might lay down their lives, but we see too many would be commander’s-in-chief or congressional want-a-be’s all too eager to throw fuel on any fire that rages in the world with little regard for any endgame other than smash-mouth. Our foreign policy is seldom led by statesmen, our national interests are too often short term and driven by profit, and our national resolve is too often built on social media polls. We can’t lead the world with might if we have not determined to understand the why that drives it’s challenges and then at least move a finger to scratch that itch. No one, no state, no actor gets everything it wants, but if we act to understand why then a world statesman we might again become.

With best wishes for greater resolve to do better in the new year.

Posted in Leadership, Policy, Strategy, Uncategorized, Vision | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

US-China Cyber Talks

Who are we kidding? Do we really expect the Chinese (government and companies) to stop online IP theft because a non-visionary emissary with little concept of national interests, priorities,or strategies met with his counterpart and reached a deal? There is no noticeable change in behavior because we do not have the stomach to step up the game and the Chinese know that better than we know ourselves.   (See: FedScoop: Officials tight-lipped about China cyber talks)

We are as tough as a marshmallow pie, afraid of the repercussions, real or imagined, that sanctions or direct retaliation would entail.  We want to talk, but are unable to do. We draw a line in the sand, with no intention of action when that line is crossed, and wonder why Continue reading

Posted in Cyber, Information Sharing, Mission/Business Improvement, Technology | Leave a comment

Government Has Lost Its Technological Edge

CH-53E Spec Ops Rappelling

CH-53E Spec Ops Rappelling

Really?! With all due respect, sir…….

The National Defense Magazine reports that the principal DepSecDef for SO/LIC, Michael Dumont, recently shared that “the U.S. government no longer has the leading edge developing its own leading edge capabilities, particularly in IT.” National Defense Magazine

The government, with very rare exceptions, does not bend metal, create technology, or manufacture products.  It does acquire technology, manage programs, integrate (somewhat) development, acquisition, and sustainment efforts, and establish requirements (though those could be far better tied to the operational end-user needs).   For the most part, however, it relies on industry to do the heavy lifting, push the envelope, and create the technologies that give our soldiers, sailors, and airmen a significant advantage in conflict.

I trust that ADepSecDef Dumont meant was that the government has lost the ability to move the acquisition process along quickly enough to field the newest technologies before a counter-solution can be fielded.  In this regard, the government is its own worst enemy.  We live in a world where the internet of everything is a reality.  Information is available to anyone about what is built, bought, available, and sold at what price and profit margin.  We know where it is built and how many people are involved, whose congressional district is affected and how many dollars trickle into the local economy.

We know the budget (real or imagined) of every program today and the expected cost per 1000 items tomorrow.  We know how to make headlines when that cost per item goes up as the unit quantity goes down and then committee the Defense and industry leadership to death on why that is so after Congress itself fails to provide funding that matches original program cost expectations.  We champion parties and causes and agendas that beat against each other so they can gain greater media coverage and add social media followers, but have forgotten how to negotiate and compromise and work together to move something (anything) forward quickly.

The problem is not that government needs industry to win the fight.  It is more in-line with re-learning that 80% or 70% of a solution is better than 0.0% of that capability if we delay the solution until it doesn’t matter.  Technology is never a solution unto itself, but it can and should enable us to improve the mission, the operations, the business.  And technology that is left on the table because the government and defense community is unable to navigate the acquisition risk management process is a real threat to our leading edge capabilities and national defense.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Wisdom and Advice As SecDef Hagel Departs – There Are Limits to Military Power

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Let’s Understand What the “Cloud” Is Really Changing

Mark Hurd is on target in How Cloud Computing is Revolutionizing Business, but let’s be honest — the cloud is really allowing someone else to own and manage the infrastructure that supports your data needs.  While there are variations on where cloud computing resources are located (private, public, or a hybrid combination of the two), it is not something magical that exists in the ether and that you just throw out there on the internet.  Someone manages the hardware and infrastructure “stuff” and then you pay them a service fee to leverage that infrastructure.  In return they agree to maintain it in accordance with certain expectations you need to make that a risk you’re willing to take, either as a business or personally.

The National Institute of Standards defines cloud computing as available, flexible, and scalable access that can be turned up/down quickly and self-service provisioned by the folks that need it.  From a business perspective it must be reliable and secure and, importantly (and often glossed overlooked) just as any other corporate project, money spent on the cloud should have a definable ROI — otherwise there is no reason to spend the funds in the first place.

The real change that Mr Hurd talks to is taking place more around the comfort level the C-suite folks have in letting someone outside the company own the infrastructure they rely on to run their business.  As they begin to walk that risk management comfort line, the obvious first trial balloons were non-mission critical functions, such as marketing and HR, for all the reasons that Mark points out.  As that business case begins to pans out, the C-suite guys more and more begin to understand that owning an IT infrastructure is not a core-competency of most of their businesses.  When that light bulb comes on the next business discussion in the board room is to determine what the remaining internal IT infrastructure contributes to the bottom-line and how to smartly shift that infrastructure support to the cloud, paying someone else to manage that service as well.

It’s important to understand what’s really changing.  Mark Hurd’s background is running companies that sell the hardware and software “stuff” that are the infrastructure of the IT domain.  They sold/sell it directly to end-user companies that want to better leverage the data and information needed to improve the business and gain a leg up on understanding their data better than the competition.  The real change for the NCR’s, Teradata’s, HP’s, and Oracle’s of the world is that CEOs have begun to say that owning an IT infrastructure is not a core competency of our business and, in fact, if we can get someone else to own it, run it, and provide us with the end result that will still help us analyze and understand our data (and the world of all the other potential data) we’re very happy campers indeed.  So they’re no longer as willing to spend big bucks to buy the boxes and infrastructure, but instead look for a cloud broker to manage it in their “cloud.”

On-one-hand, that’s not so good news for the folks that sell boxes, SW, and technology that makes the infrastructure run better and faster.  On-the-other-hand, the infrastructure supporting the cloud actually has to exist somewhere and that leads to the rise of a whole cloud infrastructure industry that runs the vast server farms and data centers (both actual and virtual) needed to support the changing need.  So the HW and server box vendors need to shift their sales focus to a new customer class and, if they’re smart, also figure out how they can stand up their own mega-centers that support the cloud SW as a service, infrastructure as a service, analysis as a service business that will ultimately replace the high file value they currently rely on and pull in from ongoing customer service support.

Mark Hurd’s insight is shared as much with his own internal team as with the industry around him.  If you don’t shift to a service oriented mind-set, you’re not going to be around in the long run.  The customer base is changing and the end-users that you’ve been dealing with for 10 or 20 or 40 years want to leverage someone else’s infrastructure with applications that tie into whatever the business team needs to stay ahead of the marketplace opportunities.  It is no longer good enough to keep an internal data mart, data warehouse, or data infrastructure that tracks ERP transactions about what happened yesterday.  To stay in-touch and ahead of business opportunities you have to channel the (big) data wherever it is — the web, mobile, social, GPS, the internet of things, yada yada — and plug it into applications that cut, sort, analyze, and help make better decisions faster before the competition knows the opportunity even exists.

The good news is that someone is still buying the IT “stuff”  — it’s just not the guys you’re used to selling it to and the margins on the HW side are shrinking fast.  The other good news is that the customers that you’ve been engaging still want to leverage information to improve the business or mission — they just need a different group of professionals that are more in tune with analysis as a service, are agile enough in advance analytics to sync your internal information to the rest of the world’s data, and are business savvy enough to get the big picture around using data to improve the business.  This is also a good news/bad news story for system integrators whose business model is essentially butts-in-a-seat to support those internal corporate IT infrastructures.  The business community will still need their services, but as data scientists and advanced data analysts rather than as system integrators and code writers.  A lot of BD and HW sales with decades of business insight will be in career transition and competing with 20 – 30 somethings with technical chops but limited business know-how.

In the end, changes in the cloud still requires businesses to understand what they expect from the dollars they spend on information and data.  Know up front what business improvement you expect from the dollars spent, whether on an internal IT plan or for SW/Infrastructure/Platform/Analysis/Data/Pick-A-Name service in the cloud.

Go back

Your message has been sent

Warning
Warning
Warning
Warning

Warning.

Posted in Analytics as a Service, Cloud Computing, Enterprise Analytics, Mission/Business Improvement, Technology | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment